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Why Carson Wentz Is The Most Overrated Prospect In The NFL Draft

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NFL

Carson Wentz

When the Eagles gave up their No. 8 overall pick, third-round pick (77th overall), fourth-round pick (100th overall), 2017 first-round pick and 2018 second-round pick, everyone knew they were going to draft a quarterback. While Jalen Ramsey, Ezekiel Elliot, and Joey Bosa are all spectacular athletes and will have great NFL careers, teams don’t trade away five draft picks for a DB, no matter how good they are.

Everyone also knew the Eagles would either draft the polished, experienced Jared Goff from Cal, or the big, athletic, strong-armed Carson Wentz. Both were highly valued across the league, especially Wentz as project because of his athleticism and strong-arm and willingness to learn a new system.

However, Wentz is the most overrated prospect in this draft, as he is inexperienced, inefficient, and has no intangibles that fit an NFL offense.

Inexperienced and Inefficient

My favorite site for advanced stats is numberFire.com. They evaluate players based on their true value to a football team and are accurate with their evaluations. Before the draft, they posted an article about what stats to look for in college quarterbacks and landed on 36 games played, passer efficiency rating (PER) near 165, and an Adjusted Yards/Attempt (AY/A) of 9.3. They say that these numbers will lead to a consistent top-10 QB.

Goff and late first-round selection Paxton Lynch were impressive in these regards, and numberFire thinks that they both should be solid quarterbacks.

However, Wentz is a step down from both of them when looking at the numbers. His PER is 152.3 (Goff had 161.2) and his AY/A is just 8.7 (Goff had 9.4). His AY/A is similar to that of Mark Sanchez, Blake Bortles, and Brandon Weeden. Yuck.

While the FCS argument is weak by itself, when considering his inefficiency, it is a viable one. He won two championships, so he did what he needed to do. He also played some of the best FCS teams in the country and beat Iowa State two years ago.

The schedule alone is not awful, but the fact that he was not comparatively efficient against those teams is very concerning.

NumberFire also said that the number of college games played was their most important stat, and while their expectation is about 3 seasons started, Wentz started just two.

The Eagles‘ strategy to deal with this is to sit him on the bench and learn from Bradford.  However, reports are coming in that Wentz is actually competing for the starting spot.  I strongly question how his first season would go, yet this is the only option the Eagles should consider in order to give him experience.

Carson Wentz was not as efficient as he should have been against his relatively weak schedule, and his inexperience will hurt him early in his career.

Not a Pro QB

A NFL offense requires a QB to not only be athletically gifted, but also requires him to have intangibles. An NFL QB must be able to read the entire field, be able to check down to secondary and tertiary options when the primary receiver is not open, have consistent footwork, and be able to step into oncoming pressure and make accurate throws under pressure.

While I don’t blame Wentz, the fact of the matter is that he has none of these things.

Scouting reports from NFL.com, CBSsports, and Scout.com all say the same thing: he struggles with NFL QB intangibles. Wentz has problems reading the entire field, he relies on his feet too much to make plays, he panics when the primary receiver is not open, he forces throws into traffic when defenses confuse him, he does not anticipate throwing windows and instead waits to see receivers open, he occasionally pre-determines where the throw is going, and he does not step into throws under pressure.

Wow.

As a Chicagoland native, years of watching Jay Cutler pre-determining throws has been painful, and I fear for Philadelphia fans. Wentz may be willing to learn, but it will be interesting to see how willing the Philadelphia coaches are to teach him all the nuances of running a pro offense. If Wentz wants to be a great quarterback in the NFL, he has a lot of technical work to do.

Conclusion

While I make Wentz seem completely incompetent, I don’t think he will be as bad as other busts. He is accurate, strong-armed and athletic and is worth a 2nd round pick or a late 1st round pick for a QB needy team like the Broncos, who drafted Paxton Lynch and should be happy with him.

However, the Eagles will be sorely disappointed when Wentz does not live up to the 5 draft picks they spent to acquire him. Carson Wentz will not be a franchise QB.

2 Comments

  1. A. B.

    October 1, 2016 at 8:50 pm

    You look kinda silly now after he’s put a hurting on the league so far…..

    • Bro Bro

      December 23, 2016 at 2:17 am

      He put a “hurting on the league”?! How, by having one of the lowest QBR’s in the entire NFL? He even got a free pass by starting with 7tds/1int in his 1st 4 games when no Defenses had game film on him (weaknesses). Since then he’s thrown for 7tds as well… in 11 games with more than double the amount of int’s (15). AWFUL! Sure… he sure did put a hurting on the league huh. This writer seen it from a mile away. Philly’s front office should give this writer a job!!

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